Oscar predictions

Well, it has been a while, but I thought I should get my Oscar predictions down someplace in case I actually end up being correct on a couple of my out-of-left-field guesses. So here goes nothing.

Best Picture
"(500) Days of Summer"
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglorious Basterds"
"Invictus"
"Precious"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

Possibilities: "Star Trek," "A Serious Man," "The Hangover," "The Blind Side," "Nine" and I guess you could even toss in "The Messenger"
Possible shockers: "Where the Wild Things Are" or "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

Comments: While "District 9" and "Invictus" are by no means locks, this is probably a race for the final spot between a ton of movies. I went with "(500) Days ..." partly on a whim and partly because if it can get enough No. 1 votes to stay in for a while, I think it will pick up more No. 3-5 type votes than any of its competitors. Wishful thinking? Maybe. But who knows what is going to happen with the ten nominations.

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Lee Daniels, "Precious"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarentino, "Inglorious Basterds"

Possibility: Clint Eastwood ("Invictus") because he is Clint Eastwood
Possible shocker: Neill Blomkamp, "District 9," or Michael Haneke, "The White Ribbon"

Comments: Daniels probably isn't a 100% sure bet, but this category seems pretty locked in.

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Possibilities: Daniel Day Lewis, "Nine," because he is Daniel Day Lewis even if the movie kind of sucked, or Viggo Mortenson, "The Road"
Possible shocker: Joseph Gordon Levitt, "(500) Days of Summer"

Comments: This seems to be fairly locked in as well. They sure as heck better nominate Renner. For all of the talk of Mo'Nique and Waltz, this is the best performance I've seen this year.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Abbie Cornish, "Bright Star"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie and Julia"

Possibilities: Helen Mirren, "The Last Station," Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria"
Possible shockers: What, Cornish isn't enough of one? Fine, Melanie Laurent, "Inglorious Basterds"

Comments: Four seem pretty locked in. Mirren seems like the favorite for the fifth, but I think this category is posed for an upset. A couple of years ago, Laura Linney was getting touted early on after getting great reviews for "The Savages," but then its seemed like she was forgotten about, getting almost no precursor attention before surprising everyone by surfacing at the Oscars. I think Cornish might end up going the same route. Mirren isn't a sure thing, Blunt is good in "Young Victoria," but it isn't the type of performance that is going to inspire passionate support, and Laurent will probably get more support in supporting.

Best Supporting Actor:
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Anthony Mackie, "The Hurt Locker"
Christian McKay, "Me and Orson Welles"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglorious Basterds"

Possibilities: Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones" or "Julie and Julia," or Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Possible shockers: Peter Sarsgaard or Alfred Molina, "An Education," or Peter Capaldi, "In the Loop"

Comments: I have a feeling Tucci or Damon will get in ahead of Mackie or McKay, but I can't decide which one. Tucci has the disadvantage of competing with himself and the fact few people seem to like the movie he has the best shot for ("The Lovely Bones"). Damon is fine in "Invictus," but once again, few people seem to really be passionate about his performance. McKay seems to have that passionate following, and it doesn't hurt to be playing Orson Welles, and Mackie could ride the wave of "Hurt Locker" love to a deserved nomination.

Best Supporting Actress:
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique, "Precious"
Julianne Moore, "A Single Man"
Melanie Laurent, "Inglorious Basterds"

Possibilities: Samantha Morton, "The Messenger," or Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Possible surprises: Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"; Diane Kruger, "Inglorious Basterds"; Marion Cotillard, "Nine"

Comments: The "Up in the Air" actresses and Mo'Nique are locks. Anyone who was mentioned could take the other two spots. I went with Moore because of her past Oscar popularity and with Laurent because I've got a feeling they'll like "Basterds" better than "Nine" and Laurent's performance sticks with you more than Kruger's does.

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"
Joel and Ethan Coen, "A Serious Man"
Pete Doctor, Bob Peterson, "Up"
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, "(500) Days of Summer"
Quentin Tarentino, "Inglorious Basterds"

Other possibilities: James Cameron, "Avatar"; John Lucas, Scott Moore, "The Hangover"
Possible shockers: Oren Moverman, "The Messenger," Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck, "Sugar"

Comments: "Avatar" is such a technical marvel that it makes it obvious that the screenplay is the weakest part. While it is by no means perfect, it might actually end up being slightly underrated as a result. As for "The Hangover," if Apatow couldn't get a nomination for "Knocked Up," which is both better and more serious than "The Hangover," I don't see it breaking through here.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach, "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
Scott Cooper, "Crazy Heart"
Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious"
Nick Hornby, "An Education"
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, "Up in the Air"

Possibilities: Nora Ephron, "Julie and Julia"; Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, "District 9"; Robert Orci and Alex Kurtzman, "Star Trek"; Anthony Peckham, "Invictus"
Possible shockers: Armando Iannucci, "In the Loop"; Spike Jonze, Dave Eggars, "Where the Wild Things Are"; Jane Campion, "Bright Star"

Comments: This thing is wide open beyond Fletcher, Hornby and Reitman and Turner. Anderson might be wishful thinking, but they nominated him the last time he made a really good movie. Cooper is just a wild stab in the dark. I have no freaking clue here.

My picks: Note, I have not seen many films yet, including "An Education," "A Serious Man," "The Messenger," "Crazy Heart," "The Damned United," "A Single Man," "Me and Orson Welles," "The Last Station," "The Informant!" and "The Blind Side," as well as just about anything foreign. I am way behind.

Best Picture
"(500) Days of Summer"
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"Fantastic Mr. Fox"
"The Hurt Locker"
"In the Loop"
"Sugar"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"
"Where the Wild Things Are"

Best Director
Wes Anderson, "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Marc Webb, "(500) Days of Summer"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Sharlto Copley, "District 9"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Joseph Gordon Levitt, "(500) Days of Summer"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Best Actress
Abbie Cornish, "Bright Star"
Zooey Deschanel, "(500) Days of Summer"
Maya Rudolph, "Away We Go"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie and Julia"

Best Supporting Actor
Peter Capaldi, "In the Loop"
Tom Felton, "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"
Anthony Mackie, "The Hurt Locker"
Paul Schneider, "Bright Star"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglorious Basterds"

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mimi Kennedy, "In the Loop"
Melanie Laurent, "Inglorious Basterds"
Mo'Nique, "Precious"

I'm getting too tired to post screenplays, but "The Hurt Locker," "(500) Days of Summer," "Up in the Air" and "In the Loop" were my favorite scripts from the films I've seen.

Only a few more hours until we'll see if I'm even close on my predictions. Hopefully there is at least one or two curveballs to keep things interesting.

Steve