Oh here we go an Oscaring ...

Just because I feel like it, here are my current Oscar predictions (reviews of the wonderful "Man on Wire" and the solid "Boy A" are forthcoming). Keep in mind I haven't seen most of these films because, well, most of them haven't gotten to the Quad-Cities.

Best Picture:
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Milk"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Wall-E"
Possibilities: "Frost/Nixon," "Revolutionary Road," "Doubt"
Possible surprises: "The Wrestler," "Gran Torino"
Comments: This is going to be an interesting year for Best Picture. Does the Academy overlook supposed biases (animated film, summer blockbuster) and nominate "Wall-E" and "The Dark Knight" or do they go the more conventional route and go "Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road." I'll probably be wrong about putting both in, but I think at least one will make it and will become "Slumdog's" primary competition for the win.

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky, "The Wrestler"
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"
Possibilities: Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"; Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"; Jonathan Demme, "Rachel Getting Married"
Possible surprises: Andrew Stanton, "Wall-E"; Mike Leigh, "Happy-go-Lucky"; Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"; Steven Soderbergh, "Che"
Comments: Would they really nominate the director of an animated film? I doubt it, but I wouldn't completely rule Stanton out, and he certainly deserves it. Aronofsky seems like the prototypical lone director nominee. Howard probably only gets in if his film does. Demme, Soderbergh and even Leigh are also intriguing lone director possibilities.

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Possibilities: Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"; Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino"
Possible surprises: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Synecdoche, New York"; Benicio Del Toro, "Che" and Josh Brolin, "W."
Comments: Langella, Penn and Rourke are locks, with Penn and Rourke likely fighting it out for the win. Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but I'm really thinking Jenkins gets recognition here as well. That leaves the last spot, and DiCaprio, Pitt and Eastwood all have things working against them. It will probably be one of those three, but if enough voters fall into the "love" category for love it/hate it movies like "Synecdoche" and "Che" this would be a possible place for them to show up.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
Possibilities: Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long"; Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"; Cate Blanchett, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Possible Surprises: Michelle Williams, "Wendy and Lucy"; Kate Beckinsale, "Nothing But the Truth"
Comments: Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are probably locks (maybe Winslet will actually win one this year). Leo is on the bubble, but the performance brought a lot of praise. I'll be rooting for her (no, I haven't seen the movie, but I'll root for pretty much anyone from the original cast of Homicide). Hawkins edges out Kristin Scott Thomas for the last spot. Jolie has a chance. I haven't seen the film yet, but judging from the initial reaction to it, I question if we'd still be talking about the performance if it wasn't Jolie delivering it. Who knows, I was pleasantly surprised with her work last year. I'll say this for Beckinsale: if her work in "Nothing But the Truth" is as good as hers in "Snow Angels" earlier this year, she might deserve a nomination, and that says a lot coming from me (I think I might have compared her acting in "Laurel Canyon" unfavorably to plywood).

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robery Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
James Franco, "Milk"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Possibilities: Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"; Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
Possible surprises: Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky"; (gulp) Tom Cruise, "Tropic Thunder"
Comments: Has this category ever been weaker depth wise. I know I still have a lot of films to see from this year, but even for my own top 7 in the category would include two actors from foreign films I'm not sure are eligible and three co-lead performances moved down to fill out the category. Ledger is likely a lock to win. Hoffman will get nominated, and at this point, given how soft the category is, Downey Jr. and Brolin likely will as well. I'm putting Franco ahead of Patel and Shannon just because it has been a bit of a breakout year for him with this and "Pineapple Express," and sometimes the Oscars reward that.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Marissa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Possibilities: Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"; Rosemary Dewitt, "Rachel Getting Married"
Possible surprises: Debra Winger, "Rachel Getting Married"; Samantha Morton, "Synecdoche, New York"
Comments: Cruz, Davis and likely Winslet, despite some apparent major category fraud, are in. In the battle for the last two spots, Adams and Tomei have enough momentum, and they are also bigger names than Henson and Dewitt. This is one category where a major surprise is possible. Also, I hope one of these ladies floors me when I finally am able to see some of the Oscar contenders. This category has produced some of the best performances in recent movie history (Adams in "Junebug," the not-nominated Maria Bello in "A History of Violence," Amy Ryan last year). This year, I consider Cruz' performance somewhat overrated, and she'd still be my favorite here.

Original Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"
Jenny Lumet, "Rachel Getting Married"
Robert D. Siegel, "The Wrestler"
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, "Wall-E"
Possibilities: Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"; Woody Allen, "Vicky Christina Barcelona"; Thomas McCarthy, "The Visitor"
Possible surprises: Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River"; Martin McDonaugh, "In Bruges"
Comments: Black is probably in. The rest ... This is probably one of the most interesting categories because of the sheer variety of films. More than most of the other branches, the screenwriters seem to embrace critical favorites (see "Before Sunset"). Looking at moviecitynews.com's composite list of critics top 10s, "Wall-E" (No. 1), "The Wrestler" (No. 4), "Milk" (No. 5) and "Rachel Getting Married" (No. 7) made the top 10, with "Synecdoche, New York" and "In Bruges" in 11 and 12, and "Happy-go-Lucky" and "The Visitor" safely in the top 20. I know it is early, but "Vicky Christina Barcelona" is not in the top 30. I know some believe believe that because Woody Allen made a movie that people didn't hate, he's automatically going to get in, but he's not the only Oscar favorite in that bubble group. Three of Mike Leigh's last four films have netted screenplay nominations, and three of Kaufman's five total ones have been nominated. Maybe I'm biased because I thought the film was horribly uneven and that Allen's script lacked some confidence in his own storytelling abilities, but I just don't see it squeezing in here.

Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Justin Haythe, "Revolutionary Road"
Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon"
Eric Roth, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
John Patrick Shanley, "Doubt"
Possibilities: Jonathan Nolan, "The Dark Knight"; David Hare, "The Reader"
Possible surprises: Ummm ... they decide to say screw it and just give the award to Beaufoy when the nominations are announced?
Comments: Much thinner field than original. I have a feeling Nolan might squeeze in, but I just don't know whether for Haythe or Shanley.

Odds and ends

-- The Quad-Cities theaters don't have a single Oscar contender playing right now unless you count "Australia," which I don't. We do, however, have "Delgo," an animated film with a metacritic score of 28 which includes the voice talents of Freddie Prinze Jr. and Jennifer Love Hewitt, meaning it may well have been sitting on the shelf since the late '90s.

-- "Pushing Daisies" just keeps getting better, making its cancellation all the sadder. This might be the best network TV show since the early seasons of "Homicide."

-- My most anticipated movies yet for this year:

1. "Synecdoche, New York"
2. "Slumdog Millionaire"
3. "The Wrestler"
4. "Happy-Go-Lucky"
5. "Frozen River"
6. "Rachel Getting Married"
7. "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
8. "Milk"
9. "Revolutionary Road"
10. "Man on Wire"

-- As usual, the Golden Globe nominations had some surprising good (Franco, Downey Jr., all the "In Bruges" nominations) and bad ("Mamma Mia"? really? the continued overrating of "Vicky Christina Barcelona" and no TV nominations for "Pushing Daisies").

Movies No. 38-41

Movie No. 38: "Charlie Bartlett": A movie like "Charlie Bartlett" has to conduct a rather tricky balancing act: trying to keep its glib sense of humor but not detracting from the serious issues it wants to convey. As "Juno" showed last year, it can be done. Unfortunately "Charlie Bartlett" shows too often why failed efforts litter the indie movie trash heaps. That's not to say this film is as ineffective as something like "The Chumscrubber," but for most of its running time it is simply to flippant with its writing and in the performances to really be taken seriously, which it clearly wants to be. The only one who seems able to find that balance is (yep, you guessed it) Robert Downey Jr., who gives another really good performance in a mediocre movie. Between him and a decent number of laughs, "Charlie Bartlett" is entertaining enough to be watchable, but it is rarely more than that. C

Movie No. 39: "Stop-Loss": For the first half of the movie is actually very, very good. The battle scene works creating a sense of confusion and horror, and the scenes in the couple of days following their homecoming, where they struggle to reconnect with their lives, makes for compelling viewing. Once the stop-loss of Ryan Phillippe's character happens, however, there seems to be a turning point. From there, it becomes about the message not the characters. Whole plot strands feel forced into being rather than springing naturally, causing the story to lose its effectiveness. It's too bad, because there was a lot of potential here. C

Movie No. 40: "The Unforseen": This documentary about the fight to save a famed Austin natural pool that is threatened by upstream development takes on an interesting subject: the pros and cons of development. The problem is, its focus is so narrow and its arguments so simple that they only have maybe half an hour of interesting material. Unfortunately, the movie stretches for an hour and a half. There's some good here, and the events they describe provide fertile topics for discussion, but the film rarely sees clear to dig beneath the surface. A thoroughly disappointing doc. C-

Movie No. 41: "Choke": Let's start with the good. The casting is spot-on. Sam Rockwell does about as much with this character as I could see anybody doing. His glimmers of depraved joy account for most of the movie's best scenes. Kelly McDonald also does this brand of nervous sincerity as well as anyone. The problem is, the story simply isn't as interesting as it looks on paper, almost whiplashing at times from bizarre to cliched. Also, this tale of a sex-addict, his crazy mother, and the other sundry bizarre characters is told with the almost exact same tone and style as an episode of "Scrubs," right down to the "what have I learned" narrated ending. It works on that show. Here, it just doesn't fit. C-

Capsules for movie No. 33-37

Movie No. 33: "Flight of the Red Balloon": This is one of those "what am I missing?" films. Proclaimed by many to be a masterpiece, forgive me, but I just don't see it. The film is fine from scene to scene, but there is not much cohesiveness, other than perhaps a thematic focus on the harriedness of modern life. And that would be fine, except that the film flits about this way and that, much like its main character, a busy mother played by Juliette Binoche, and the titular red balloon. And perhaps that is the point, but I still don't see that making it great. B

Movie No. 34: "Burn after Reading": This send up of spy films is an entertaining enough flick, but it is still a minor Coen brothers work. An easy way to tell? A Coen brothers film starring George Clooney, Frances McDormand, Brad Pitt, Tilda Swinton, John Malkovich and Richard Jenkins should not be able to be completely stolen in just two scenes by J.K. Simmons. But this one is. That's not to say it doesn't have its merits. Its twisting of spy movie staples into its own "unintelligence" story is often quite clever, and the film does have laughs, especially Simmons' two scenes. In other words, it's no "Ladykillers," but it doesn't rise to the consistently inspired heights of the pair's best comedies either. B

Movie No. 35: "Tropic Thunder": Robert Downey Jr. is an acting genius. It's unfortunate the word can't be used to describe much else about this comedy. That's too bad because you can see something pretty special lurking there, if Ben Stiller and his co-writers had sharpened their knives and their focus a little more. Stiller, Downey Jr. and Jack Black play a trio of movie stars (the washed up action star, a five-time Oscar winner who has undergone a skin pigment procedure to play a black character and the star of a bunch of fart comedies, respectively) unsuccessfully trying to shoot a war movie when they get caught up in a real-life battle with a drug cartel. Downey's Kirk Lazarus is the best part about the film, showing an ability to be sharply focused and completely in character even during the film's broadest scenes. Stiller, who admittedly is less grating than he often has been in recent years, and Black don't fare quite as well. Neither is awful, but their performances, like the film's jokes, only work sporadically. It also probably could have used more precise editing. Even some of the movie's funnier scenes tend to drift on for too long, destroying the comic momentum (most notably one involving Tom Cruise as an evil mogul). Special mention does go to Jay Baruchel, though, who barely gets mentioned as being in the film but whose straight man actually gets more laughs than most of the film's stars. C+

Movie No. 36: "21": A rather indifferent telling of an interesting story, "21" is the tale of a group of MIT students who, working with their professor, employ a card-counting system to win loads of money at Vegas casinos, drawing the attention of an old-school Vegas enforcer. The montage-heavy style does little to make the film more interesting, but it doesn't detract enough to keep it from being watchable. Just competant enough to not be bad. C

Movie No. 37: "Quantum of Solace": The first scene in "Casino Royale" set the tone for the entire movie. It was bloody, jarring, dark and in a couple of minutes successfully rebooted a decades-old character. In a word, it was brilliant. Unfortunately, the first scene in Quantum of Solace also sets the tone. This time, Bond is in the middle of a car chase. Exciting start, right? Well, it might have been had it not been so haphazardly shot and edited as to make it almost impossible to tell which car was which. Instead of exciting, it is simply dizzying, distancing and confusing. Such is the case with "Monster's Ball" director Marc Forster's crack at the Bond franchise. Most of the film, at least the action scenes, seem to have been scripted or designed by someone who had just watched the Bourne trilogy back-to-back-to-back without understanding why those films worked. And things don't get better when Forster tries to add artistic flourishes, such as intercutting one action sequence with a scene from an opera going on in the background. The film also seems as though it wants to say something about what vengeance does to you, but it never really is able to rise to the occasion. Thankfully, however, the cast is back. Daniel Craig is still great in this role, combining a rough-hewn swagger with fierce determination. Also thankfully returning are Judi Dench and Giancarlo Giannini. Thanks to them, the non-action scenes are actually something of a joy to watch, a reminder of how good "Casino Royale" was. Here's hoping that the next Bond film is more like that film than this one. C

Four more to go, sometime later this week.

Capsules for movies No. 27-32

OK, here are the capsule reviews that I promised, from best film to worst ...

Movie No. 27: "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days": One of the only movies I've ever walked out of absolutely floored but the directorial choices. Almost every shot is perfectly calibrated to make this story of a college student trying to help her friend procure an illegal abortion in Communist 1980s Romania one of the year's most powerful films. For instance, in one scene the main character Otilia (Anamaria Marinca) has been coerced into having sex. While many films might have shown the pseudo-rape, this one chooses to instead have the camera stay in the bathroom with her friend. We know what is going on next door. We don't need to see it to make it powerful. Instead we see her friend's face as she hears what is going on, realizing what she has done to her friend and what is in store for her. It's an amazingly powerful scene, and it is one of many great ones in this film. Had I included this on my list from last year instead, it might have toppled "Once" from the top spot. It is that good. A

Movie No. 28: "The Visitor": While the film could maybe use a few more shades in its plotting, as a portrait of a man discovering something within himself that he thought had died long ago, the movie truly shines. That is in part because of the wonderful work of Richard Jenkins, who plays Walter Vale, a professor who returns to his little-used apartment in New York to find a pair of illegal immigrants have made it their home. Also deserving high praise is Hiam Abbass as the mother of one of the immigrants who Jenkins' character forges a connection with. It is here that the heart of the film lies, and this connection is one of the main reasons director Tom McCarthy's followup to the also wonderfully low-key "Station Agent" succeeds. It's almost enough to forgive McCarthy for his role as sleazy reporter Scott Templeton on the fifth season of "The Wire." A-

Movie No. 29: "Paranoid Park": Messed up chronologies can either work ("Memento") or not ("21 Grams") depending on whether there is an actual reason for the device other than just to add dramatic tension to a story that otherwise would be lacking. Here, director Gus Van Sant manages to use his fractured storytelling as a way to further explore the confused, clutterred mind of his protagonist Alex, a high school kid who must deal with his role in the accidental death of a security guard near a skateboard park. Since Alex is, ultimately the one telling the story, how he chooses to tell it, the jumping around, putting off showing the death, tells us something about him as well. It's an interesting trick and it works well. While Van Sant never quite achieves the poetry he seems to be looking for in some of the scenes, he does craft a compelling character piece, and that is no small feat. B+

Movie No. 30: "The Edge of Heaven": I'll admit, plot description of this German/Turkish film involving the search for a dead prostitute's militant daughter by the son of the man who accidentally killed her made me a bit skeptical. That Fatih Akin's film succeeds, however, is a testiment to how it never loses its focus on its characters' humanity. It handles the film's themes about the search for connection in a wonderfully understated manner. Perhaps the film's only problem is that the fractured nature of its storytelling robs it of a bit of its momentum between its three chapters. That flaw, however, is minor compared to its success. B+

Movie No. 31: "Ghost Town": This Ricky Gervais-headed Rom-Com never really found much of an audience, which is too bad because it might be the most sneaky-good movie of the year. It goes along for most of the film kind of like its protagnonist, occasionally amusing, definitely competant. Then at the end it hits you just how much the film has actually made you care about these characters, something far too few romantic comedies succeed at. That is sneaky-good. And that is what makes this romance/redemption tale a wonderful surprise. B+

Movie No. 32: "Snow Angels": A much more typical David Gordon Green film than his other effort of this year, "Pineapple Express," for much of its run "Snow Angels" is also the far more consistent, effective film, partially thanks to wonderful performances by Sam Rockwell and Kate Beckinsale. That's right, Beckinsale, who I know I've said a few not-so-kind things about in the past, is utterly remarkable here as a mother, estranged from her husband and stuck in a waitressing job she doesn't seem to like. The film mixes sadness and desperation with hope in a wonderful combination. At least it does until an ending that just feels forced. Still, a more-than-worthwhile sit. B+

More coming soon.

OK, I'm behind

I just did a count and I'm 16 movies behind. Wow. So I'm planning to do capsule reviews for them in one longer post to catch up. One of the reasons I keep falling further behind is the daunting task of catching up, so hopefully this will get the blog somewhat back on track.

For now, though, through 42 movies, here are my personal choices for some of the Oscar categories in alphabetical order (although because I'm hazy on rules for foreign films, some of these might actually have been eligible last year instead, but who cares). There are some surprises (Kate Beckinsale, for example), but overall, this year has been slightly disappointing so far. I've seen a lot of B/B+ films, but only five so far have been A/A-

Best Picture
"The Band's Visit"
"The Dark Knight"
"4 Years, 3 Weeks, 2 Days"
"The Visitor"
"Wall-E"

Best Actor
Colin Farrell, "In Bruges"
Sasson Gabai, "The Band's Visit"
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Karl Markovics, "The Counterfeiters"
Sam Rockwell, "Snow Angels"

Best Actress
Kate Beckinsale, "Snow Angels"
Juliette Binoche, "Flight of the Red Balloon"
Ronit Elkabetz, "The Band's Visit"
Anamaria Marinca, "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days"
Frances McDormand, "Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day"

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Aaron Eckhart, "The Dark Knight"
James Franco, "The Pineapple Express"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Devid Striesow, "The Counterfeiters"

Best Supporting Actress
Hiam Abbass, "The Visitor"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Cynthia Nixon, "Sex and the City"
Laura Vasiliu, "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days"
Julie Walters, "Mamma Mia"

More soon