Oh here we go an Oscaring ...

Just because I feel like it, here are my current Oscar predictions (reviews of the wonderful "Man on Wire" and the solid "Boy A" are forthcoming). Keep in mind I haven't seen most of these films because, well, most of them haven't gotten to the Quad-Cities.

Best Picture:
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"The Dark Knight"
"Milk"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Wall-E"
Possibilities: "Frost/Nixon," "Revolutionary Road," "Doubt"
Possible surprises: "The Wrestler," "Gran Torino"
Comments: This is going to be an interesting year for Best Picture. Does the Academy overlook supposed biases (animated film, summer blockbuster) and nominate "Wall-E" and "The Dark Knight" or do they go the more conventional route and go "Frost/Nixon" and "Revolutionary Road." I'll probably be wrong about putting both in, but I think at least one will make it and will become "Slumdog's" primary competition for the win.

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky, "The Wrestler"
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"
Possibilities: Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"; Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road"; Jonathan Demme, "Rachel Getting Married"
Possible surprises: Andrew Stanton, "Wall-E"; Mike Leigh, "Happy-go-Lucky"; Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"; Steven Soderbergh, "Che"
Comments: Would they really nominate the director of an animated film? I doubt it, but I wouldn't completely rule Stanton out, and he certainly deserves it. Aronofsky seems like the prototypical lone director nominee. Howard probably only gets in if his film does. Demme, Soderbergh and even Leigh are also intriguing lone director possibilities.

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
Possibilities: Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"; Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino"
Possible surprises: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Synecdoche, New York"; Benicio Del Toro, "Che" and Josh Brolin, "W."
Comments: Langella, Penn and Rourke are locks, with Penn and Rourke likely fighting it out for the win. Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but I'm really thinking Jenkins gets recognition here as well. That leaves the last spot, and DiCaprio, Pitt and Eastwood all have things working against them. It will probably be one of those three, but if enough voters fall into the "love" category for love it/hate it movies like "Synecdoche" and "Che" this would be a possible place for them to show up.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
Possibilities: Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long"; Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"; Cate Blanchett, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Possible Surprises: Michelle Williams, "Wendy and Lucy"; Kate Beckinsale, "Nothing But the Truth"
Comments: Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are probably locks (maybe Winslet will actually win one this year). Leo is on the bubble, but the performance brought a lot of praise. I'll be rooting for her (no, I haven't seen the movie, but I'll root for pretty much anyone from the original cast of Homicide). Hawkins edges out Kristin Scott Thomas for the last spot. Jolie has a chance. I haven't seen the film yet, but judging from the initial reaction to it, I question if we'd still be talking about the performance if it wasn't Jolie delivering it. Who knows, I was pleasantly surprised with her work last year. I'll say this for Beckinsale: if her work in "Nothing But the Truth" is as good as hers in "Snow Angels" earlier this year, she might deserve a nomination, and that says a lot coming from me (I think I might have compared her acting in "Laurel Canyon" unfavorably to plywood).

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robery Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
James Franco, "Milk"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
Possibilities: Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire"; Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
Possible surprises: Eddie Marsan, "Happy-Go-Lucky"; (gulp) Tom Cruise, "Tropic Thunder"
Comments: Has this category ever been weaker depth wise. I know I still have a lot of films to see from this year, but even for my own top 7 in the category would include two actors from foreign films I'm not sure are eligible and three co-lead performances moved down to fill out the category. Ledger is likely a lock to win. Hoffman will get nominated, and at this point, given how soft the category is, Downey Jr. and Brolin likely will as well. I'm putting Franco ahead of Patel and Shannon just because it has been a bit of a breakout year for him with this and "Pineapple Express," and sometimes the Oscars reward that.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Marissa Tomei, "The Wrestler"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
Possibilities: Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"; Rosemary Dewitt, "Rachel Getting Married"
Possible surprises: Debra Winger, "Rachel Getting Married"; Samantha Morton, "Synecdoche, New York"
Comments: Cruz, Davis and likely Winslet, despite some apparent major category fraud, are in. In the battle for the last two spots, Adams and Tomei have enough momentum, and they are also bigger names than Henson and Dewitt. This is one category where a major surprise is possible. Also, I hope one of these ladies floors me when I finally am able to see some of the Oscar contenders. This category has produced some of the best performances in recent movie history (Adams in "Junebug," the not-nominated Maria Bello in "A History of Violence," Amy Ryan last year). This year, I consider Cruz' performance somewhat overrated, and she'd still be my favorite here.

Original Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Charlie Kaufman, "Synecdoche, New York"
Jenny Lumet, "Rachel Getting Married"
Robert D. Siegel, "The Wrestler"
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, "Wall-E"
Possibilities: Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"; Woody Allen, "Vicky Christina Barcelona"; Thomas McCarthy, "The Visitor"
Possible surprises: Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River"; Martin McDonaugh, "In Bruges"
Comments: Black is probably in. The rest ... This is probably one of the most interesting categories because of the sheer variety of films. More than most of the other branches, the screenwriters seem to embrace critical favorites (see "Before Sunset"). Looking at moviecitynews.com's composite list of critics top 10s, "Wall-E" (No. 1), "The Wrestler" (No. 4), "Milk" (No. 5) and "Rachel Getting Married" (No. 7) made the top 10, with "Synecdoche, New York" and "In Bruges" in 11 and 12, and "Happy-go-Lucky" and "The Visitor" safely in the top 20. I know it is early, but "Vicky Christina Barcelona" is not in the top 30. I know some believe believe that because Woody Allen made a movie that people didn't hate, he's automatically going to get in, but he's not the only Oscar favorite in that bubble group. Three of Mike Leigh's last four films have netted screenplay nominations, and three of Kaufman's five total ones have been nominated. Maybe I'm biased because I thought the film was horribly uneven and that Allen's script lacked some confidence in his own storytelling abilities, but I just don't see it squeezing in here.

Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
Justin Haythe, "Revolutionary Road"
Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon"
Eric Roth, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
John Patrick Shanley, "Doubt"
Possibilities: Jonathan Nolan, "The Dark Knight"; David Hare, "The Reader"
Possible surprises: Ummm ... they decide to say screw it and just give the award to Beaufoy when the nominations are announced?
Comments: Much thinner field than original. I have a feeling Nolan might squeeze in, but I just don't know whether for Haythe or Shanley.